As we outlined last week, economic fundamentals are not in-step with market movements. While the prices of stocks have been moving skyward in reaction to worldwide monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, the real economy takes on an ever bleaker look. By way of evidence, we point to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released this morning. For the second consecutive month the index has marched deeper into negative territory. The September survey indicated that the General Business Conditions index fell to -10.4, an indication of a worsening business environment for manufacturers in the … [Read more...]
Blinder, Meltzer, Taylor, Warsh on Fed Policy
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder, now a Princeton University economist, Allan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, John Taylor, an economics professor at Stanford University, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, participate in a panel discussion about the potential implications of Fed monetary policy. Bloomberg's Rich Miller moderates the panel at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York. (Source: Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Bernanke’s Theme Song
Here is some Friday fun for you. We are still in disbelief of the Fed’s reckless unbounded money printing campaign that was announced yesterday. The hubris from the Bernanke Fed is just nauseating. The consequences of this misguided monetary activism are serious and likely to be devastating to millions of Americans. We’ll have more on the Fed next week. Until then, Here is some easy listening from Carly Simon. We nominate this as Dr. Bernanke’s official theme song and we’d love to hear other suggestions from you. Send your nominations to feedback@youngresearch.com. … [Read more...]
Wrong Tool for the Job
Yesterday the Federal Reserve unleashed more quantitative easing on the American economy. The S&P 500 jumped by 1.6% in reaction to the new policy. Investors are fixated on central bank money printing because they are hoping for another short-term boost to asset prices that have been a hallmark of past money printing episodes. But hope isn't a strategy. Those investors clamoring for more stimulus are ignoring the limited efficacy of money printing. The global economy doesn't suffer from a shortage of liquidity. America's financial system is drowning in liquidity, yet U.S. economic … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 9-14-12
The Efficacy of the FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy, Daniel L. Thornton, St. Louis Fed The Hidden Costs of Monetary Easing, Gramm and Taylor, Wall Street Journal For true stimulus, Fed should drop QE3, Ruchir Sharma, Financial Times Bernanke risks creating a liquidity trap, Peter R. Fisher, Financial Times Bad Timing on Buybacks, Spencer Jakab, Wall Street Journal Corporate Cronyism Harms America, Charles Koch, Wall Street Journal … [Read more...]
VIDEO: Guess Which Strategist Works on Wall Street
Guess which of the two strategists in the videos above works on Wall Street. … [Read more...]
VIDEO: ECRI’s Achuthan Says U.S. Economy Is in Recession
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lakshman Achuthan, chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the performance of the U.S. economy. Achuthan speaks with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) … [Read more...]
Stimulus Speculation Goes Global
We have commented thoroughly on the stimulus programs being signaled or implemented in the United States and Europe, but market speculation has broadened its horizons. Now anticipation of stimulus efforts from developing countries is moving prices. Speculators saw the weak foreign trade data announced Monday morning by China as cause for optimism when it comes to the prospect of future fiscal stimulus. China’s imports declined by 2.7% compared to the year before, and exports only grew at—what is for China—a very modest 2.7% over the year. The average annual growth for imports and exports … [Read more...]
Stockman: ‘The Fed Is the Heart of the Problem’
Former Reagan OMB Director, David Stockman makes some good points, but we don't agree with all of his solutions. … [Read more...]
What We’re Reading 9-7-12
Ultra Easy Monetary Policy and the Law of Unintended Consequences, William R. White, Dallas Fed The dog and the Frisbee, Andrew G Haldane, Bank of England Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound, Michael Woodford, Kansas City Fed Redistributive Monetary Policy, Markus K. Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov, Princeton University … [Read more...]
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