Stocks are assets. The true value of any asset is simply the discounted value of all future cash flows. This holds true for stocks, bonds, property, natural resources, and even collectibles. To calculate the value of an asset you simply estimate all future cash flows and discount them at an appropriate rate. When you go through this exercise for a company you quickly realize that the value of any individual year's worth of cash flows accounts for a relatively small portion of that company's value. The majority of a company's value is determined by adding up discounted cash flows far into the … [Read more...]
Default Risk Among the Many Concerns with Annuities
The recent turmoil in the equity and credit markets has created angst and panic among investors. Emotionally charged investment decisions are being made without consideration to the long-term consequences. The insurance industry thrives in this type of environment. They offer neatly packaged products with bells and whistles that befuddle even the most experienced investors. The opportunities offered appear too good to be true and they are. A popular product with investors is variable annuities because they offer guarantees. The truth is, they are expensive and are anything but risk free. … [Read more...]
Crumbling Pillars
The pillars of support preventing the overvalued euro from depreciating versus the U.S. dollar are quickly crumbling. On a purchasing power parity basis, our favored approach to estimating long-term currency values, the euro is deeply overvalued and has been for some time (Chart 1). The euro has been supported by a positive and rising interest rate differential between euro interest rates and U.S. interest rates. Chart 2 shows the interest rate differential between 2-year government bonds in the Euro-Zone and the U.S. The widening interest rate differential was caused by … [Read more...]
The Energy Equivalent Value of Wood
People who live in cold northern climates are likely to face stiff home heating oil bills this winter. If heating oil prices average $5 per gallon this winter, as some analysts are estimating, the average heating oil consumer may have to fork over more than $4,000 just to keep warm. With many low and middle-income consumers already struggling from high prices at the pump, surging heating oil bills are not an expense some will be able to bear. One solution to ease high heating bills is wood. A cord or two of wood and a wood stove can go a long way in reducing home heating oil bills. To see … [Read more...]
International Investing & Taxes
Are you aware of the tax implications of international investing? When you invest in foreign securities, even those listed on U.S. exchanges, your investment is subject to foreign tax withholding. Foreign tax withholding is simply money that your broker takes out of your dividend income, capital gain, or interest income that is paid to the central government of the company you own. Withholding rates vary by country and source of income. Some countries require withholding on dividends, interest, and capital gains, and others only withhold income on dividends and interest. Why is this important … [Read more...]
There Will Be Water
Roberts County is a neat square in a remote corner of the Texas Panhandle, a land of rolling hills, tall grass, oak trees, mesquite, and cattle. It has a desolate beauty, a striking sparseness. The county encompasses 924 square miles and is home to fewer than 900 people. One of them is T. Boone Pickens, the oilman and corporate raider, who first bought some property here in 1971 to hunt quail. He's now the largest landowner in the county: His Mesa Vista ranch sprawls across some 68,000 acres. Pickens has also bought up the rights to a considerable amount of water that lies below this part of … [Read more...]
WARNING! Avoid the Catastrophic Thinking of Retirement Investing
Ah, retirement. Congratulations. You made it. Whether you got here by selling your business or working your way through corporate America, you’ve made it and you must feel relieved, excited, and probably a little nervous. Your retirement years should be some of the best in your life. But they are also some of the most nerve-racking, with no job to easily fall back on. With this in mind I’ve constructed a list of potentially catastrophic thoughts you might have and how to handle them. Picture yourself 10 years from now with the memories you might have of you and your spouse with grandchildren, … [Read more...]
Retirement Arithmetic
Are you planning an early retirement? We urge you to check out our retirement income arithmetic before you hurry off into the sunset. Let’s look at the arithmetic of a financially secure and comfortable retirement. First, we start with a portfolio balance of 50/50 stocks and bonds. A 50/50 mix offers a nice defense against down years and dampens your overall portfolio volatility. Next we make some return assumptions. Our long-term return expectation for stocks is 8.8%. If you’re still using historical returns of 10%+ you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Our stock return assumption is … [Read more...]
Give’em an inch and they’ll take a mile
Prior to 1913, the federal government was constrained from directly taxing personal income. Along came the 16th Amendment and the concept of limited government was thrown out the door. In 1913 the highest marginal rate was 7% on income over $500,000 ($10,495,000 in 2004 dollars). Compare that to today’s highest marginal rate of 35% on income above $319,100. It’s an utter disgrace. And why, you may ask, have our elected officials confiscated a growing portion of our income? Why else? To increase government spending on unneeded federal programs. Look at the chart below – prior to the … [Read more...]
Bond Funds
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Jonathan Clements highlighted the advantages of low-cost bond funds. Jonathan correctly points out that low-cost bond funds consistently outperform their high-cost cousins. This is not because low-cost bond funds are run by superior investment managers. It’s simply a result of the funds’ low expenses. As an example, take Vanguard GNMA with an expense ratio of .20% and Franklin US Government Securities with an expense ratio of .72%. Both funds focus exclusively on GNMA securities. The difference in their expense ratios is .52%. According … [Read more...]