Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, assets under management have increased to $830 billion as of April 30, 2010. Over the last 10 years the compound annual rate of growth in ETF assets has exceeded 30%. The remarkable success of ETFs is grounded in their many advantages over actively managed open-end mutual funds. ETFs offer intraday liquidity; open-end funds can only be purchased once per day at the closing price. ETFs disclose their entire portfolio daily; open-end funds are only required to disclose their portfolios semi-annually. Through the use of in-kind transfers, ETFs are able to … [Read more...]
A Gift from Greece
The debt crisis that started in Greece and is now engulfing Europe has acted as a catalyst for a sell-off in global risk assets. Investors are liquidating stocks, risky bonds, and commodities and loading up on U.S. Treasury bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield has fallen from a high of 4.84% in early April to a low of 4.05% earlier this week. If you own long Treasury bonds, you have just been given an opportunity to liquidate your position before prices collapse. And collapse they will. Investors are flocking to long Treasury bonds because they perceive them to be risk-free. That’s a farce. … [Read more...]
A 500% Return in High-Yielders
Do you invest in master limited partnerships (MLPs)? MLPs are publicly traded limited partnerships. They combine the tax benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of a publicly traded security. MLPs pay no entity-level tax. They are pass-through entities. MLP unit holders are allocated a proportionate share of the revenue and expenses of the partnership. Most of the publicly traded partnerships in the U.S. are in the energy transportation and storage business. These are the companies that own the pipelines and storage terminals that move oil and gas from the oil fields to the … [Read more...]
Avoid Financial Ruin
Did you know that the S&P 500 is down 5% since year-end 1999? That’s not just price; I’m including dividends here. What an atrocious return. And for the privilege of losing 5% of your capital, you’d have had to endure two of the most severe bear markets in history with peak-to-trough declines of 50% or more. Investors who retired at year-end 1999, at the height of the tech bubble, undoubtedly had too much invested in the stock market. The weekly asset allocation survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors showed that in January of 2000, investors were putting … [Read more...]
A Wake-up Call for Investors
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 5% this week. Up until this past week, U.S. stocks marched higher despite the increasing risks of a government debt crisis in Europe. This week’s sell-off indicates investors may finally be waking up to the significant headwinds the global economy still faces. If the debt crisis in Greece spreads to other Euro-zone countries, it would wreak havoc on the Euro-zone economy and neighboring countries as well. The global economy would also be impacted. The Euro-zone economy is almost the same size as the U.S. economy. If Europe dips back into a … [Read more...]
My Favorite Leading Indicator
My favorite leading indicator is Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index. Moving the Goods is a market-capitalization-weighted index of non-airline transportation companies. Transportation companies are some of the first businesses to realize a change in economic activity. You have to move the goods before you produce or sell the goods. Young Research’s index is a real-time leading indicator of economic activity. GDP data show the economic downturn started in the third quarter of 2008. I recognize that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, dates the … [Read more...]
Beat the S&P 500 by 2 to 1
My chart shows the long-term performance of $1 invested in the consumer non-durables sector in June of 1926 to $1 invested in the S&P 500 at the same time. The consumer non-durables industry includes companies that make and sell everyday items. Demand for non-durables, or what are more commonly referred to as consumer staples, is not heavily influenced by the business cycle. You don’t stop eating or brushing your teeth just because the economy is in recession. The consistency and stability of consumer staples companies definitely appeals to investors in or nearing retirement, but all … [Read more...]
Stay Defensive
Confidence in the economic recovery is improving, and retail investors are moving back into equities. Here are four reasons to remain defensive in the face of this renewed optimism: Stocks are now discounting a sustained and robust economic recovery. A second contraction in economic output is no longer priced into the market. If the economy contracts or comes up short of expectations, stocks could be in for a significant correction. Taxes on income, capital, and possibly even consumption are going up. Higher taxes resulting from Obama’s health-care boondoggle are only the tip of the … [Read more...]
The Payday Indicator
Alert! My Payday Indicator is signaling the worst environment for investors during my investment career. Conservative investors have been left with scraps on the floor; there isn’t even a decent chuck burger to be had, let alone a T-bone steak. At the end of 2009, investors were asked to take on more risk and receive less reward than at any other time since I’ve been in this business. My Payday Indicator replicates a portfolio invested 50% in Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, and 50% in three-month T-bills. As you can see from my chart, the yield on this portfolio is the lowest on … [Read more...]
Searching for Yield?
With yields of 0.15% on T-bills and 2.6% on five-year CDs, the temptation of many investors is to reach for yield. Don’t do it. When you reach for yield, you are either taking on too much credit risk or too much maturity risk. With a flood of government debt issuance in the pipeline, and a bloated Federal Reserve balance sheet, much higher interest rates are a dangerous prospect. Don’t forget that a seemingly modest 1% rise in interest rates could decimate a long-bond portfolio. I’m talking about losses upwards of 20%. That’s not what most bond investors sign up for. Instead of reaching for … [Read more...]
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