In investing there is only one variable that an investor can control, and that is cost. Cost is vital to your long-term investment success. Lower costs necessarily result in higher returns. There is no disputing this fact. As an example, take two funds with the same gross return, Fund A and Fund B. Fund A has a 1% expense ratio and Fund B has a 2% expense ratio. After fees are deducted, Fund A will return 1% more than Fund B. Anybody capable of basic arithmetic should be able to figure this out. Yet, millions haven’t. The mutual fund industry is jam-packed with high-expense-ratio-load funds … [Read more...]
Wall Street Begging for More Stimulus
The stock market mounted a powerful rally in July. The S&P 500 jumped almost 7% for the month and has tacked on another 2% so far in August. The rally is most unusual given the raft of weakening economic data that has been reported in recent weeks. My chart shows a marked downtrend in the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index. The Citigroup index measures the difference between projected economic data and actual economic data. A falling index indicates that economic data is coming in worse than expected. Since expectations are what drive stock prices, a declining surprise index is often … [Read more...]
My #1 Diversification Tip
I often write about diversification and the benefits diversification offers to investors. Diversification is said to be the only free lunch in investing. It allows you to lower risk, without sacrificing meaningful return. The basic concept of diversification is of course intuitive. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. And don’t invest your entire portfolio in one security—that would be too risky. You want to spread your assets among many different securities. If one goes bust you only lose a little bit instead of everything. But there is more to diversification than spreading your assets … [Read more...]
High-Octane Fuel for Stocks
Since I graduated from Shaker Heights High School in 1959, the most important driver of long-term stock market returns has been the direction of interest rates. Bonds compete with stocks in investors’ portfolios. When interest rates rise, the prospective return on bonds goes up. In order for stocks to remain competitive with bonds, their prospective returns must also rise. Prospective stock returns rise when prices and valuations fall. Think of the dividend yield on a stock. If you own a $100 stock that pays a $4 annual dividend, you are looking at a 4% yield. If the price of that stock falls … [Read more...]
A Simple Strategy for Stock Market Success
For over four decades I have used a simple strategy to successfully invest in the stock market. I invest exclusively in dividend paying stocks. I especially favor those with high yields, a strong balance sheet, and a history of annual dividend hikes. This strategy is simple, but it works. Historically, high dividend payers have outperformed non-dividend payers. In the chart below I show the growth of $1 in non-dividend paying stocks to the growth of $1 in the highest yielding quintile (top 20%) of U.S. stocks. The difference in performance is profound. $1 invested in non-dividend payers in … [Read more...]
Stop Losing Money in ETFs
You may be thinking about using fixed-income ETFs to fill out your portfolio. Don’t. I continue to avoid fixed-income ETFs, as should you. The low liquidity of many bonds creates wide discount/premium gaps between the price and the net asset value (NAV) of the funds. If you buy the fund at a premium, you’re whacking yourself with a notional loss right out of the gate. For quick proof, take a look at my chart of the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (LQD). The top part of the chart shows the price and net asset value (NAV) of the fund. If you buy the fund when the price is … [Read more...]
Earn Safe Profits from Takeover Candidates
There are two strategies that can be used to profit from takeover candidates. Most investors are familiar with the strategy of investing in speculative takeover candidates. Buying takeover candidates just prior to a merger announcement can be highly rewarding. Returns of 30–50% in a matter of weeks are possible, but there is also significant risk. If not done with discipline, investing in prospective takeover candidates can be a perilous strategy. To safely profit from takeover candidates, you want to buy companies that are the target of a publicly announced merger. This is called merger … [Read more...]
The Most Important Takeaway from the BP Oil Spill
The oil spill in the gulf is an economic and environmental catastrophe. BP made some serious missteps that have cost the company and gulf coast residents dearly. While tragic, there are many lessons to be learned from the spill. There will be important takeaways for everyone involved or affected by the disaster. Most obviously, the oil and gas exploration and production firms will put greater emphasis on prevention and disaster response. For investors there is one vital takeaway that must not be overlooked. Prior to the spill, BP was a global blue-chip. It was, and still is 3rd largest … [Read more...]
A Troubling Trio of Economic Indicators
In over four decades in the investment business, I have found that the most reliable economic indicators are not those released by government statistical agencies, but those that are available real-time in the stock, bond, and commodities markets. Three charts I have been monitoring regularly to gauge the strength of the economic recovery are Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index, lumber prices, and copper prices. Young Research’s Moving the Goods Index is a market-cap-weighted, non-airline transportation index. If the Moving the Goods Index is in a bull market, chances are the … [Read more...]
Simple Arithmetic Vital to Your Investment Success
My arithmetic of portfolio losses chart shows the return necessary to break even after incurring a loss. The horizontal axis shows the assumed portfolio loss incurred. The vertical axis shows the portfolio gain required to break even. My chart clearly illustrates that the bigger the loss you take, the harder it is to recover. You can recover from a small loss. If your portfolio drops 10%, you only need a gain of 11.1% to get back to even. But if your portfolio drops by 50%, you need a gain of 100% just to get back to even. And if you take a loss of 70%, you need a staggering 233% return … [Read more...]
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