Woe betide the Cabbie: New York City taxi pickups have fallen 10% in the first half of the year, and cabbies are pointing the finger straight at Uber and other ride-sharing companies as the cause of their problem. Nolan Hicks and Dan Rivoli write in the New York Daily News: Pickups for the iconic taxis that long ruled Manhattan streets plummeted 10% to 77 million in the first six months of 2015 — down from 85.5 million the year before, a Daily News analysis of trip data showed. Fewer riders for the fleet of 13,587 yellow cabs translated into less cash. The taxis collected $981 million … [Read more...]
Services Sector Booming
The ISM Non-manufacturing report on business shows that the services sector of the economy is booming. In July, the ISM services index hit its highest level since 2005 and its 4th highest level on record. Among the sub-components, business activity, new orders, and employment were all strong. About 80% of U.S. economic output comes from the services sector. … [Read more...]
The 2% Economy
The latest GDP report came out yesterday and it showed economic growth of 2.3% in the second quarter. First quarter GDP was revised up from a drop of .2% to a gain of .6%. Yesterday’s release also included the BEA’s (Bureau of Economic Analysis) annual revisions to GDP. The annual revisions incorporate newly available, more accurate, and more complete source data. What did the revisions show? This won’t come as a surprise to Mom and Pop on Main Street, but economic growth over the last few years was weaker than originally reported. The compounded annual growth rate of GDP from 2011-2014 was … [Read more...]
Americans are Getting Stronger
From Benjamin Graham’s, The Intelligent Investor, first published in 1949: “Americans are getting stronger. Twenty years ago, it took two people to carry ten dollars’ worth of groceries. Today, a five-year-old can do it. —Henny Youngman” … [Read more...]
From One Circus to the Next
If the media reports are correct, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras just agreed to the same deal that Greece’s euro-area creditors offered Greece before Tsipras abruptly demanded a referendum. The Greek people overwhelmingly voted to reject the bailout offer from creditors, but now Mr. Tsipras is apparently agreeing to what amounts to the same deal. So with that, the markets are telling us the Greek crisis is over—for now at least. For now, you say? Yup, for now could be until Sunday as euro-area parliaments still have to agree to the deal. But even if they do, we unfortunately … [Read more...]
Noble House
If you want some perspective into China’s stock market then you’ll want to read (or re-read in my case) Noble House by James Clavell. ‘This is for Ayn Rand - one of the real, true talents on this earth for which many, many thanks. James C, New York, 2 Sept 81’ - written on a copy of ‘Noble House’ sent to Ayn Rand whose writing James Clavell admired. As the fifth installment in the ‘Asian Saga’ this massive story brings together major stories and bloodlines from previous novels in the Asian Saga. The Struans - Clavell’s capitalist vanguards are at the helm of affairs in ‘Noble House’ … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Crumbling Infrastructure
America's Worst Roads: Christopher Ingraham writes in the Washington Post: The worst roads in America are in Washington D.C., where 92 percent of our major roadways are rated as "poor." Conversely, zero percent of D.C.'s roads received a "good" rating in the Federal Highway Administration data analyzed by TRIP. There is almost literally not a single good road in D.C. But D.C. is a special case, since it is not a state and doesn't have vast stretches of highway like most places in the U.S. do. So among the real states, the worst roads are in California where 51 percent of the highways are … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Panic in the Streets?
Greece is Bankrupt: Athens Stock Exchange Waits for More Info: What We're Reading: Traders and speculators drive 70% of ETF volume. (Barron’s) Markets Headed to ‘Bubbleland,’ Warns Jeremy Grantham (MoneyBeat) "The Hidden Costs of Bond ETFs" (Barron’s) Chinese Stock Plunge Leaves State Media Speechless (Bloomberg) Millions, Billions, Trillions: Germany in the Era of Hyperinflation (Spiegel) … [Read more...]
The Monday Melee: Future Risk
De-Globalization and The Great Monetary Experiment: These are two major risks facing the world economy going forward, as highlighted by Swiss Re's new report, New emerging risk insights. [gview file="https://www.youngresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/SONAR_2015_WEB.pdf" width="100%" save="0"] A World of Risks: The Impact and Likelihood of Global Risks: Quotable: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett "I have long understood that losing always comes with the territory when you wander into the gambling business, just as getting crippled for life is … [Read more...]
Economic Misfire
For as long as the economy has been crawling its way out of the last recession, economists and policymakers have been puzzled by the lackluster rate of economic growth. In past economic cycles, deeper recessions were usually followed by stronger recoveries. Coming out of prior recessions, growth rates of 4%, 5%, and even 7% were not uncommon. During this cycle, annual GDP growth hasn't broken 3.25% once. What explains the lackluster growth during this cycle? Aside from the many policy missteps that have held back growth, the chart below explains why the economy still hasn’t hit its … [Read more...]
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