Your Survival Guy loves the holidays. But let’s get something out of the way. Your survival food prep should not be considered “free game” for one and all. You’re not running a convenience store; you’re trying to plan for the unexpected. But that’s what it feels like sometimes, like I’m a stock boy. Case in point. Before heading out for a small family celebration on Saturday night, someone asked if “we” have any peanuts, knowing I have a stack of ‘em in the basement. “Do I look like Mr. Peanut?” I thought to myself. “I don’t have any that are easy to get to,” I said, thinking that they were … [Read more...]
Archives for November 2021
The Lasting Impact of the Supply-Chain Shock
In the Financial Times, David Bowers analyzes the long-term effects that may be presented by today's supply chain breakdown. He writes: Most policymakers have only known a world where demand has been limited and supply has been elastic. Whatever the demand, China has been ready and willing to meet it as the world’s supplier of last resort. The policy response to the pandemic has upset that balance. High levels of saving and government transfers during lockdowns have underwritten a dramatic rebound in global demand but failed to prepare supply, creating a bullwhip effect. Now it is supply … [Read more...]
Timeless Investment Advice and Venison for the Winter
In my conversations with you, you’re telling me about your bow hunting expeditions this season. Yesterday I spoke with two of you about your recent hunts, and you told me you’re good to go for the winter. The freezer’s packed with meat. I guess it should be no surprise the large number of hunters in Your Survival Guy’s network. Like fishing, sometimes getting your catch home can be like The Old Man and the Sea, where one client found himself a long way from his ATV with a Pope and Young size buck. “I’m gonna need some help here,” he thought. Luckily his buddy was there. Mission … [Read more...]
Do Investors Even Remember Risk?
The Financial Times headline by Robin Wigglesworth reads "Low yields have left investors numb to risk, bond veteran Dan Fuss says." That assumes investors even remember that risk exists, which oftentimes seems to not be the case. They may have forgotten altogether. Wigglesworth reports: The strong rally in corporate debt markets triggered by a flood of central bank stimulus is spooking veteran bond investor Dan Fuss, who warns that investors are taking the most risks he has seen in the past six decades. Central banks last year sharply cut interest rates and unleashed vast bond-buying … [Read more...]
SURVIVE THANKSGIVING: Don’t Let Inflation Ruin Family and Fun
As you prep up for Thanksgiving survival, let’s see what you’re telling me. You’re reading with your children one of my favorite books we read to our children, Hatchet, celebrating its 35-year anniversary. It’s never too early to read about self-reliance, and the book makes for a wonderful gift this Christmas. For starters, you can watch the movie A Cry in the Wild, based on the book and released in 1990. The film stars child actor Jared Rushton, who you probably know better from Honey I Shrunk the Kids, and enjoys a small role played by Ned Beatty. My daughter tells me the … [Read more...]
Biden Looks for a Scapegoat for High Gas Prices
On the same day the Interior Department was forced by a court order to hold its first auction of oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico under the Biden administration, Biden himself was demanding to know why prices for oil and gas are so high, and accusing oil companies of "anti-competitive or otherwise potentially illegal conduct." It's difficult to imagine an administration that is less self-aware. Bloomberg reports on Biden's comments blaming the industry: The Biden administration has a new response to soaring oil and gasoline prices it sees as politically perilous: blaming big oil. The … [Read more...]
ALGORITHM APOCALYPSE: Zillow’s Robo-Real Estate Meltdown
You have heard that Zillow is desperately trying to offload the inventory of homes it built up throughout the pandemic buying spree. It turns out, Zillow's plan to dominate the real estate market with data-driven algorithmic buying and selling was "too risky, too volatile," and "too narrow." Those aren't adjectives investors want describing the operations of the businesses they own. With more detail on what happened at Zillow, Will Parker and Konrad Putzier report at The Wall Street Journal: When executives at Zillow Group Inc. Z -4.01% pored over the company’s earnings in the spring, they … [Read more...]
Surviving to Climb New Hampshire’s 4,000 Footers and More
In my conversations with you, you’re telling me how life throws you curveballs. Who would have thought you’d be navigating pre-retirement as a cancer survivor with one lung? But, you tell me, “that’s life.” What’s been on your mind is what you can do with it. Can you, for example, still hike like you used to? Can you still summit a 4,000-foot mountain? And so, that’s what we talked about earlier this fall as you planned your trip to the White Mountains of New Hampshire, where 48 of the 4,000 footers reside, many in the Presidential range. If you’re familiar with the White Mountains, you … [Read more...]
ECB Warns of “Abrupt Adjustments in Market Expectations” After Years of “Exuberance”
After years of "exuberance," the ECB is warning of potential pitfalls that could catch markets off-guard, including abrupt adjustments in market expectations." Martin Arnold reports for The Financial Times: Increased “exuberance” in housing markets, junk bonds and crypto assets have created vulnerabilities that will be exposed if higher than expected inflation leads to a sharp rise in interest rates, the European Central Bank has warned. This year’s rebound in the eurozone economy from the coronavirus pandemic has reduced short-term risks to the financial system, but it has also led to a … [Read more...]
DECEMBER RAGE Gauge: How Will You Protect Your Assets?
OK, my December RAGE Gauge is in, and risk continues to run high. Before we get into the reading, let’s go over a few items that are on my mind. The days of drawing down 4% of your portfolio per year have sailed on, especially while interest rates are nailed to the floor. Instead, a more reasonable draw today is in the 3% range, and even that is up for debate. Try to keep your draw rate as low as possible now, so you’re not forced to reduce it later because of a market correction. Consider where we are in the current environment with stocks. It’s a risky time for retirees and … [Read more...]