Young Research & Publishing Inc.

Investment Research Since 1978

Disclosure

Currencies in Crisis, Oil Spiking: Time to Buy?

By

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have staged impressive rallies to begin 2012. As of this morning, the Dow was up more than 6% YTD. Improving economic data and a flood of global central bank liquidity have helped levitate stock prices. Volatility has also declined markedly in recent weeks and now sits at an eight month low. As stock prices have risen, economic data has improved, and volatility has dropped, investors have become more bullish. Our chart on the spread between the percentage of bulls and bears in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey is … [Read more...]

Coordinated Currency Devaluation: Time to Buy Gold

By

Not to be outdone by Europe or the U.S., the Bank of Japan announced yesterday that it would print an additional 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) to expand the size of its asset-purchase program. The BOJ’s decision comes on the heels of the European Central Bank’s December decision to massively expand its balance sheet and the Bank of England’s decision to increase the size of its own money printing campaign. The yen tumbled vis a vis the U.S. dollar and the euro on the news. The BOJ’s decision is yet more evidence of coordinated global fiat currency devaluation by the world’s largest central … [Read more...]

We Are All Subprime Now

By

Over the last 10 years (since year-end 2002), profligate spending in Washington has resulted in a staggering $6.9-trillion increase in debt held by the public. That’s $22,000 for every man, woman, and child in America. A family of four is looking at an $88,000 increase in their debt burden. How generous of those folks in Washington to rack up 88 grand in debt on your family’s behalf. Be sure you send a thank-you card. The median family income in the U.S. is about $60,000. That means that in only 10 years, Washington has raised the average family’s debt burden by 146 percentage points … [Read more...]

Employment Picture Brightens: Is it Bullish for Stocks?

By

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly jobs report this morning. The headline numbers blew away expectations. Non-farm payroll employment increased by 243,000 in January compared to estimates of 140,000. The unemployment rate came in at 8.3%, 0.2% better than expectations. The big upside surprise in January’s employment numbers is likely related to the Labor Department’s annual benchmark survey and population adjustments, but there is no denying the positive trend in the labor market. Over the last three months, non-farm payrolls have increased by an average of 200,000, while the … [Read more...]

Don’t Let This Mutual Fund Mistake Cost You Thousands

By

What mutual fund mistake am I talking about? This mistake is so common, chances are you have committed it yourself—before you became a savvy, successful investor, of course. If you have ever purchased a mutual fund solely on the basis of past performance, you have made this mistake. Buying yesterday’s winners—also known as performance chasing—is a time-honored tradition for many investors. No matter how many warnings they hear on the pitfalls of performance chasing, many novice investors continue to engage in this practice. Poll your friends and family who have 401(k) accounts. Ask them how … [Read more...]

The 2012 Stock-Market Outlook

By

Barron’s released its 2012 stock-market outlook this weekend. In the issue, Barron’s surveyed 10 Wall Street strategists on the outlook for the U.S. stock market. Most of the strategists are the heads of equity departments at Wall Street’s biggest banks. What are the Street’s equity strategists forecasting for the S&P 500 next year? Solid gains, of course. Would you expect anything less from the heads of equities at Wall Street’s big banks? Wall Street earnings and bonuses are highly correlated with stock-market performance. It doesn’t pay to be a bear on Wall Street. If investors don’t … [Read more...]

Balance Sheets Deteriorate: Economy to Suffer

By

The Federal Reserve released its quarterly flow of funds report last week. The Fed’s flow of funds report is one of the most valuable economic data sets kept by the government. It is a treasure trove of financial information on the household, corporate, and government sectors of the economy. The most recent report includes data through the third quarter of this year. I’ve included three charts on a couple of the more important data points in the report. All three have implications for the medium-term economic outlook. The first chart shows the percentage of equity that households have in … [Read more...]